Analysis of Forest Ecosystem Service Clusters and Influencing Factors Based on SOFM and XGBoost Models

This study focuses on the Dabie Mountain Comprehensive Station in Anhui Province, constructing a multi-scale analytical framework and integrating remote sensing and socio-economic data to systematically assess the spatiotemporal evolution of ecosystem service bundles (ESBs) and landscape ecological risks using SOFM, XGBoost, and SHAP models. The research categorizes ecosystem service functions into four types: water conservation core areas, carbon storage–habitat optimization areas, carbon storage–water production composite areas, and multifunctional synergy areas. From 2013 to 2023, the proportion of multifunctional synergy areas increased from 39.85% to 42.86%, while carbon storage-habitat optimization areas and water conservation core areas decreased by 28,035.47 hm2 and 2118.8 hm2, respectively, indicating significant spatial restructuring of regional ecosystem service functions. The landscape ecological risk exhibits a pattern of “medium risk dominance with high-low polarization,” where high-risk areas overlap with urban expansion zones, and low-risk areas are concentrated in ecological conservation zones. Quantitative analysis reveals that climatic factors (e.g., annual precipitation) dominate the risk patterns in water conservation core areas and ecological conservation zones, topographic factors (e.g., elevation) influence regional spatial differentiation, and socio-economic factors (e.g., nighttime light index) significantly affect agricultural production core areas. The findings elucidate the evolutionary patterns of ecosystem service functions and the mechanisms of risk formation in the Dabie Mountain region, providing a scientific basis and technical support for regional land use optimization, ecosystem function enhancement, and ecological security assurance.