Electoral autocracy with powerful local elites: theory and evidence from Brazil

We investigate why most dictators hold multi-party local government elections, even if they face powerful local opponents (e.g., local elites). Our theory predicts that the dictator’s credible threat to manipulate or prohibit local government elections compels a sufficiently large number of local opponents to change their policies (toward the dictator’s preferred policy) and party affiliation (toward the dictator’s party). As a result, the dictator (i) gets his preferred policy, and (ii) creates the impression that he is popular throughout the country because his party wins most local government elections. The second benefit (impression of popularity) does not exist when the dictator prohibits local government elections or parties. We illustrate our theory using local government spending and election data during Brazil’s Military Dictatorship (1964–1985).