High-resolution assessment of wind energy resources over the Arabian Peninsula

The Arabian Peninsula (AP) is a climate change hotspot characterized by extreme climatic conditions that drive high energy demand and urgently require sustainable energy solutions. In this context, wind energy offers a reliable pathway for large-scale renewable energy development. This study presents a comprehensive, high-resolution assessment of wind resources across the AP using a 5-km reanalysis dataset (APR) generated with a regionally tuned Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for the period 1980–2019. Validation of 100 m wind speeds (WS100) from APR against ground-based observations shows strong agreement, with statistically significant correlations and low biases across the region. WS100 magnitudes exhibit strong seasonality throughout the AP. Wind drought episodes (WS100 < 3.5 m/s) are prevalent along the western coast, while rated-wind conditions (WS100 between 11 and 25 m/s), critical for turbine performance, occur most frequently over the northern and central Red Sea. Extreme wind events (WS100 > 25 m/s) are rare across the AP. Long-term trends reveal a pronounced summer weakening of WS100 over the northern Red Sea and eastern AP, and a concurrent strengthening over the central Red Sea and southern Saudi Arabia. These changes are accompanied by increased wind droughts in the former and more frequent rated-wind conditions in the latter. Capacity factor estimates derived from modern turbine technologies highlight key wind energy hotspots in the Gulf of Aqaba, the Suez Canal, the Tokar Gap region, and central-western Saudi Arabia. These trends are analogous to the long-term evolution observed in WS100. Our analysis offers strategic insights for wind farm deployment and infrastructure planning, supporting sustainable energy development and strengthening energy security across the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.