Exploring the nonlinear relationship between robotics manufacturing and urban carbon emissions

Robotics is widely regarded as a key driver of digital transformation and green industrial upgrading, yet its environmental implications remain ambiguous. Existing studies primarily focus on the emission effects of robot applications, while largely neglecting robotics manufacturing as an energy- and resource-intensive industrial activity. Using panel data from 277 Chinese prefecture-level cities from 2008 to 2019, this study examines the relationship between robotics manufacturing development and urban carbon emissions. We find a robust inverted U-shaped relationship: carbon emissions initially increase with the expansion of robotics manufacturing but decline once the industry reaches a moderate scale. Mechanism analysis reveals a stage-dependent sequential pathway, whereby mature robotics manufacturing promotes robot adoption, improves urban energy efficiency, and ultimately reduces carbon emissions, while this channel is inactive at early stages. Heterogeneity analysis shows that carbon-mitigation effects are more pronounced in the central region than in the eastern region, suggesting a latecomer advantage in green industrialization. Subsector analysis further indicates that system integration delivers earlier and stronger carbon-reduction effects than ontology manufacturing. These findings highlight the importance of considering industrial life-cycle stages and value-chain positions when designing policies to align high-tech industrial development with carbon-reduction goals.