Electricity Demand Forecasting Based on Flexibility Characterization

Electricity demand forecasting is essential for optimizing energy management and planning in microgrids and institutional contexts. The purpose of this article is to demonstrate how flexibility characterization can serve as a structural foundation for prediction, providing a contextualized framework that surpasses the limitations of traditional approaches. Representative trajectories (A–D), derived from entropy and variability metrics, were consolidated from historical user data and used as the basis for modeling. Two complementary approaches were implemented: ARIMA models, which capture endogenous dynamics, and ARX models, which extend this capacity by incorporating exogenous cyclical variables (hour, day of the week, month) and lagged predictors. A systematic grid search was conducted to identify optimal parameter configurations, followed by validation through rolling forecasts with a 24-h horizon, relevant for operators of microgrids, institutional managers, and energy planners. Performance was evaluated using MAE, RMSE, MAPE, and SMAPE, ensuring comparability across trajectories. Results show that ARIMA consistently achieved lower error rates in stable trajectories (A and C), with SMAPE values around 2.0%, while ARX provided substantial improvements in irregular ones (B and C), reducing SMAPE from 3.7–5.9% to approximately 2.2–2.6%. In highly irregular profiles (D), all models converged to similar accuracy (SMAPE ≈ 9.0%). When applied to individual users, predictive errors varied more widely depending on trajectory assignment: stable users showed SMAPE values around 3–4%, while irregular users exhibited much higher errors, exceeding 18–21%. Unlike conventional methods that treat characterization and prediction as separate processes, this study integrates both into a unified framework, enabling forecasts to capture stability, cyclicity, and adaptability. The methodology was further applied to individual users by assigning them to representative trajectories and adjusting predictions through baseline scaling. Overall, the findings demonstrate that embedding forecasts within characterized trajectories transforms prediction into a contextualized analysis of flexibility, enabling accurate short-term forecasts and supporting practical applications in energy planning, demand management, and economic dispatch. The framework has been designed to support electricity demand forecasting across multiple contexts, from microgrids and institutional systems to larger territorial and national scales. Through contextual calibration, the methodology ensures adaptability and broader relevance for energy forecasting and demand-side management.