Student-College Match and Retention for Students With Disabilities

Abstract Outcomes of the student-college matching process have been shown to influence important postsecondary outcomes, including persistence, retention, and degree attainment. However, limited research has examined how matching outcomes operate for students with disabilities. This dissertation investigates student-college matching patterns for students with disabilities and compares the results with matching quality for students without disabilities. This study also examines the relationship between matching outcomes (undermatch, equal match, and overmatch) and first-year retention. Particular attention is focused on the nature of these relationships and any differences by disability status. Data is used from the Beginning Postsecondary Students (BPS:12-17), and filtered to focus on traditional-age, first-time beginning students enrolled in college. Disability status is measured at the time of college entry based on student self-reported data from NPSAS:12 (BPS base year data). To operationalize the college match process, institutional selectivity is assessed relative to students’ academic preparation. Results of the college matching model indicate that students with disabilities experience higher rates of undermatching and slightly lower rates of overmatching when compared to their peers without disabilities. Logistic regression models with institutional fixed effects are used to analyze the relationship between matching outcomes and first-year retention. The use of fixed effects accounts for unobserved and time-invariant institutional characteristics. Findings demonstrate that for students without disabilities, high levels of undermatching are significantly predictive of lower probability of first-year retention. Contrastingly, no statistically significant relationship between matching outcomes and first-year retention is observed for students with disabilities. Rather, retention for students with disabilities is associated more strongly with socially oriented predictive factors including student engagement, interaction, and perceived support. These findings demonstrate that while academic matching continues to be an important predictor of early persistence and retention for the general student population, it may perform a more limited role in predicting first-year retention for students with disabilities. The absence of a statistically significant relationship between matching and first-year retention for these students underscores the need to consider social, environmental, and support structures in understanding the true drivers of retention. From a practice and policy perspective, these results highlight the need for postsecondary institutions and policymakers to move beyond strategies that focus on academic matching and prioritize inclusive campus climates, student support structures, and social programs to remove barriers and improve retention of students with disabilities. Keywords: Students with Disabilities, Disability Status, College Matching, Undermatching, Institutional Selectivity, College Access, College Choice, First-year Retention