Projected cost competitiveness of zero-emission trucks in Australia

This study compares the Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) of battery-electric trucks (BETs), fuel cell trucks (FCTs), and diesel trucks (DTs) under Australian conditions, using a bottom-up simulation model based on real-world data on fuel consumption, payload, dwell-time, and costs, excluding government incentives. TCO projections, aligned with Australia's decarbonization goals to 2050, indicate that zero-emission trucks (Gross Weight Mass 15.5 t, 22.5 t and 42.5 t) are expected to reach cost competitiveness with diesel by 2050. BETs currently exhibit lower TCO for back-to-base operations, whereas FCTs are more competitive for long-haul applications. By 2050, FCTs are projected to outperform both BETs and DTs across all freight tasks, driven by lower CAPEX and payload capacity gains of up to 1 tonne compared to DTs. Driver wages constitute the largest cost component (30 – 70%), followed by CAPEX in back-to-base and fuel in long-haul operations. Fuel consumption is analyzed across 50 – 100% payload cases. For similar trucks, literature values generally cluster closer to the 50% load case in Australia, suggesting lower payload utilization than is typical in Australia. These findings highlight the need for pilot projects, infrastructure planning, and policy support tailored to Australia's unique freight conditions to accelerate the adoption of zero-emission trucks. Figure Graphic Abstract. TCO projections for DT, BETs, and FCTs under Australia's road emission scenarios: (A) 15-t, (C) 42.5-t trucks. • Driver wages are the top cost driver, up to 70% of total expenses. • Zero-emission trucks will likely outperform diesel in TCO by 2050. • Currently, BETs have lower TCO for back-to-base; FCTs lead in long-haul. • By 2050, FCTs lead in TCO across both back-to-base and long-haul.