Strategic decoupling and structural resilience in global seafood trade: Lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic (2020–2024)

The COVID-19 pandemic induced unprecedented disruptions in global food supply chains, with the seafood sector experiencing unique volatility due to its high perishability and complex logistics. This study investigates the resilience of global seafood trade by analyzing import data obtained from the International Trade Centre (ITC) Trade Map database across nine product categories defined under the Harmonized System (HS 0301–0309) from 2020 to 2024. Utilizing a dual-metric approach of market volatility (Coefficient of Variation) and recovery velocity (CAGR), we identify a significant structural shift in market composition. Results indicate that while high-value, logistics-sensitive categories like crustaceans (HS 0306) exhibited moderate volatility, processed categories such as fish fillets (HS 0304) demonstrated superior resilience, consolidating a permanent market share above 22%. Furthermore, a distinct "V-shaped" recovery in fresh/chilled products (HS 0302) by 2024 suggests a full restoration of global logistics networks, yet under a new equilibrium where shelf-stable and value-added products play a more critical role in food security. These findings highlight the need to promote processing capacity, value addition, and product diversification strategies to enhance the resilience of global seafood trade against future systemic shocks. This research provides strategic insights for policymakers and industry stakeholders, emphasizing that future industry resilience depends on value-addition and the diversification of product forms to mitigate systemic shocks.