A Dynamic Fuzzy Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Methodology for Hydrocarbon-Bearing Plays Across Full Exploration Stages

Most of the existing evaluation systems for hydrocarbon-bearing play are using various evaluation indicators and fixed weights, which are not sensitive to the subjective/objective cognition or the exploration stages. We construct a multi-level and multi-type play evaluation criteria system with unified standards, the subjective uncertainty of which is formulated by the fuzziness of the indicators. Then, a full-stage dynamic fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) method is presented for play evaluation, in which a dynamic fuzzy-game model is built to combine the objective Criteria Importance Through Intercriteria Correlation (CRITIC) weights improved by the Theil index and the subjective Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) weights. This approach can simulate hesitation and strategic trade-offs in the human mind to balance the subjective and objective information. Thereafter, a stage-aware model is developed for play assessment by using dynamic fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, covering the regional exploration, pre-exploration, and evaluation stages. Using the data from plays at different exploration stages in the Tarim Basin, empirical application shows that the evaluation results are consistent with actual exploration judgment. Sensitivity analysis and comparative experiments verify the rationality of parameter setting and the effectiveness and reliability of the presented method. This study offers a practical MCDM for optimizing plays and guiding exploration decisions, which overcomes the limitations of traditional methods, including the lack of a unified evaluation framework, insufficient utilization and integration of multi-source information, inadequate characterization of phased priorities, and limited representation of fuzziness in evaluation indicators.