The moderating role of health financing and National security policies in addressing the effects of COVID-19 risks and poverty on life expectancy in developing nations

Abstract This study examines the influence of health financing and national security policies on life expectancy in developing countries, with a particular focus on the risks of COVID-19 and poverty. Drawing on annual panel data from 2005 to 2022, the analysis incorporates a broad set of indicators, including the COVID-19 and pandemic risk indices, vaccine accessibility, poverty headcount ratios, public health and defense expenditures, global peace index, per capita income, and household consumption. To address methodological concerns such as endogeneity and cross-sectional dependence, the study applies the panel system Generalized Method of Moments alongside the Common Correlated Effects Mean Group (CCE-MG) estimator. Robustness is further assessed using Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) and Dynamic OLS (DOLS) techniques. The findings demonstrate that COVID-19 risks and poverty exert significant and negative effects on life expectancy in developing countries. Moreover, the interaction of these factors with health financing and national security further compounds their detrimental impact. The consistency of results across CCE-MG, FMOLS, and DOLS confirms their reliability. The study underscores the moderating role of institutional quality in shaping the efficacy of health and security interventions. It recommends prioritizing primary healthcare with performance-linked budgets, expanding targeted social protection for populations vulnerable to poverty and health shocks, and integrating health and security planning to safeguard critical infrastructure. Strengthening governance and institutional oversight ensures transparency and efficient resource use. These integrated strategies reduce structural health inequities and build resilience, offering practical guidance for sustainable public health and human development improvements.