Modeling how penalty sequences influence decisive scoring in elite judo

Penalty sequences are a central component of tactical decision making in elite judo. Although prior research has examined the frequency and consequences of shido penalties, limited attention has been given to how an opponent’s shido relates to the timing of a decisive outcome. This study aimed to estimate the interval from an opponent’s shido to a subsequent ippon and to examine whether the covariates associated with this interval differed between the opponent’s first-shido and second-shido phases. Bout-level data from the Tokyo 2020 and Paris 2024 Olympic Games and the 2021–2024 World Judo Championships were analyzed using Weibull accelerated failure time models. The results revealed clear phase-dependent patterns. Following the opponent’s first shido, time to ippon was significantly prolonged by Golden Score entry and increased with the winner’s pre-penalty shido count, while ranking differential showed a marginal delaying effect and heavier weight categories tended to resolve faster. In contrast, after the opponent’s second shido, Golden Score remained the dominant predictor of longer time to ippon, and the winner’s pre-penalty shido count and weight category retained statistically significant associations, whereas ranking differential and other bout characteristics were not significant. Sensitivity analyses reinforced this asymmetry: the first-shido model exhibited broader dependence on contextual covariates, whereas the second-shido model was comparatively concentrated in a smaller set of drivers. These findings indicate that the correlates of shido-to-ippon timing differ across penalty phases, with later phases operating under more constrained structural conditions. The proposed phase-aware time-to-event framework provides a quantitative template for penalty-conditioned scoring tempo analysis in elite judo.