Natural Resources, Energy Transition, and Environmental Sustainability: Evidence from Turkey’s Strategic Resource Potential

This study pursues two main objectives. The first is to explain the relationships between natural resource rents, energy transformation, economic growth, and environmental degradation in the Turkish economy. The second is to assess the contribution of boron mining, in which Türkiye is a clear world leader, to environmental sustainability. This study utilizes the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds test with structural breaks using data from 1970 to 2021. The short-term results demonstrate that an inverted-U relationship exists between economic growth and environmental degradation. Moreover, the findings indicate that natural resource rents exert a positive effect on environmental degradation, whereas renewable energy consumption contributes to its mitigation. Conversely, fossil fuel consumption is associated with heightened environmental deterioration. Similar findings are obtained in the long term, confirming the validity of the Inverse Load Capacity Curve hypothesis. This result also confirms the environmental dimension of the natural resource curse hypothesis. The dynamic ordinary least square (DOLS) estimator was employed to verify the robustness of the long-run results. Finally, the study utilized Toda-Yamamoto causality analysis. These results emphasize Türkiye's need to channel its resource revenues toward renewable and low-carbon energy investments rather than consumption-driven growth. It is crucial to develop green innovation and integrate sustainability goals into energy planning. In this context, boron, one of Türkiye's most strategic natural resources, is considered to significantly contribute to sustainable energy technologies and the country's transition to a low-carbon, resource-efficient, and environmentally friendly economy.