Woke/anti-woke dynamics in Norway, 2014–2023

We present a system dynamics model (SDM) of woke/anti-woke (WAW) dynamics in Norway, calibrated against Norwegian Citizen Panel data from 2014 to 2023. The SDM synthesizes theories related to WAW dynamics, including Moral Foundations Theory and two contrasting types of sensitivity to injustice (focusing on injustice to self and injustice to others). The simulation's two dependent variables measure the total amount of radicalism (left-wing and right-wing combined) relative to the population, and the amount of left-wing radicalism versus right-wing radicalism. Minimizing ideological polarization calls for minimizing the first output measure, while winning ideological culture wars draws attention to the second output measure. Results exhibit the vital role that homophily—the extent to which people socialize and communicate with those ideologically similar to themselves—plays in exacerbating or ameliorating ideological polarization in a society. High homophily increases radicalism in a relatively balanced way. Unbalanced radicalism can occur, but only at low levels of homophily. This suggests practical interventions: intensify culture wars by increasing homophily through media bubbles and decreasing encounters with unfamiliar others; or reduce polarization by decreasing homophily, encouraging positive encounters with unfamiliar others, and resisting one-sided radicalism when it arises by emphasizing civil virtues.