Digital inclusive finance and regional carbon emissions in China under the dual carbon goals

This study investigates the relationship between Digital Inclusive Finance (DIF) and regional carbon emissions in China under the national “Dual Carbon” goals. Utilizing a prefecture-level city panel dataset (2011–2022), we employ two-way fixed effects models, mediation analysis, and panel threshold regression to assess the impact of DIF on carbon emission intensity and its transmission mechanisms. The results indicate that DIF significantly suppresses carbon emission intensity, primarily by promoting industrial structure rationalization. Crucially, this effect exhibits substantial heterogeneity: it is strongest in the eastern region and in smaller cities, and varies markedly across the resource-dependency lifecycle, with the largest impacts observed in growing and declining resource-based cities. Furthermore, a diminishing marginal effect is identified as DIF itself develops beyond certain thresholds. These findings highlight the need for policymakers to move beyond uniform strategies and instead design context-specific policies that leverage DIF as a precision instrument for facilitating low-carbon transitions across diverse regional and urban contexts.