Modeling cholera transmission: Hyperinfectivity, immunocompromise, and adaptive strategies

Despite advances in medicine, cholera remains a major public health threat, especially in resource-limited regions, due to its complex transmission involving bacterial hyperinfectivity and host susceptibility, including immunocompromised individuals. This study develops a mathematical model incorporating these factors and adaptive control strategies, calibrated using data from Bogra and Calcutta. Analytical and numerical analyses reveal a forward bifurcation near a basic reproduction number of one, emphasizing the importance of both direct and environmental waterborne transmission. Simulations underscore that early preventive measures and healthcare capacity are vital for reducing outbreak size and mortality, with sensitivity analysis reveals environmental transmission as a key factor in epidemic severity. Overall, the research offers valuable insights into cholera dynamics, aiding in the development of effective intervention policies to prevent and control outbreaks.