Impact of Environmental and Human Factors on the Populations of the Lesser Kestrel (Falco naumanni) at National and Local Scales

The global decline in biodiversity, mainly caused by human activities such as land use change, agricultural intensification, habitat degradation, and climate change, is impacting many species, including raptors. The lesser kestrel (Falco naumanni), a threatened colonial raptor strongly associated with traditional agricultural landscapes, has experienced marked distributional and demographic changes across Spain. Understanding the environmental and anthropogenic factors shaping its occurrence is essential for guiding effective conservation actions. In this study, we combined national-scale presence data with local breeding information to identify the main drivers influencing the species’ spatial patterns and potential causes of local population change. Nationally, the lesser kestrel showed positive associations with prey availability, grasslands, and non-irrigated croplands, while urban areas, water bodies, and higher altitudes negatively affected its occurrence. Climatic variables, particularly precipitation during the warmest quarter and temperature seasonality, were also significant predictors. At the local scale (Córdoba province), colony abundance increased in non-irrigated agricultural areas and certain human-modified habitats, but declined in woodlands, open natural areas, and landscapes characterised by larger patch sizes. Overall, our findings highlight the relevance of preserving heterogeneous, traditional agricultural mosaics and maintaining prey-rich open habitats. By integrating national and local perspectives, this study identifies priority areas for conservation and provides actionable insights to support efforts aimed at halting the decline of the lesser kestrel in Spain.