Quantitative analysis of the spread pattern of pine wilt disease from the Yangtze River Basin in China

This study provides the distance-based quantitative criterion distinguishing natural and anthropogenic PWD spread, and demonstrates that long-distance dispersal is overwhelmingly driven by human activities. The integrated probability modeling and road network framework offers an operational tool for identifying high-risk pathways and supports targeted surveillance, quarantine design, and regional management strategies for PWD and other human-vectored forest pests. © 2026 Society of Chemical Industry.