Assessment of the influence of helio-geophysical processes on the temperature change of the Arctic atmosphere in the area of the Northern Sea Route

The subject of the study is a model of the influence of helio-geomagnetic processes on the features of temporary changes in global and Arctic temperatures from 1850 to 2025. Objects of research: solar activity, the Earth's magnetic field, volcanic eruptions and carbon dioxide emissions from them, changes in the temperature of the surface atmosphere. Special attention was paid to changes in temperature and climatic processes and the ice situation in the Northern Sea Route area. It is considered how changes in the number of solar flares over time lead to an increase in the trend of the multipole component of the Earth's main magnetic field generated in the outer core and induced into the mantle of this part of the magnetic field. These processes have influenced changes over time in volcanic activity, carbon dioxide emissions, and temperature in the Arctic. Research methods: spectral analysis using the maximum entropy method, regression analysis using the least squares method.The scientific novelty of the work done lies in the fact that quasi-random regression-time dependences, the multipole component of the main magnetic field, volcanic eruptions, carbon dioxide emissions, and the temperature of the surface atmosphere were revealed. As a result, a physical model of the sequential influence of helio-geophysical processes on changes in temperature and climatic features in the Northern Sea Route zone is presented. As a result of the analysis of statistical data, a table of calendar dates of the beginning of explosive eruptions of large terrestrial volcanoes and the times of occurrence of maxima of magnetic storms and related other magnetic parameters was compiled. The application of a new method for predicting the time period (within 1-14 days) of the eruption of one of the volcanoes in the northern hemisphere of the Earth (Kamchatka, Kuril Islands, Alaska, Hawaii, Japan and some others) is considered.