The future of jobs in an era of demographic and technological transformation

This brief assesses how demographic change and automation will shape global employment needs by 2050.By breaking down future employment needs into (i) demographic trends, (ii) labour force participation shifts and unemployment targets and (iii) automation impacts, the analysis reveals pronounced regional disparities.Developing economies will face substantial pressure to create jobs, driven primarily by rapid population growth, while advanced economies will confront comparatively modest demographic demand but face higher risks of automation-induced job displacement.In a scenario in which automation proceeds at a moderate pace, and technologies replace human labour faster (by 2.5 per cent per year) than workers can acquire new skills, global demand for new jobs could rise by one billion by 2050.The findings of the analysis highlight the urgency of context-specific policy strategies in labour market governance, skill development, industrial development and the provision of social safety nets to navigate these diverging trajectories.

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Publication Details

Journal
WU Research
Published
2026-03-01
Primary Topic
Digital Economy and Work Transformation
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
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article

The future of jobs in an era of demographic and technological transformation

Alejandro Lavopa, David E. Bloom, Neil Bennett, Taylor Hanna et al.
WU Research
Digital Economy and Work Transformation
article

The future of jobs in an era of demographic and technological transformation

Alejandro Lavopa, David E. Bloom, Neil Bennett, Taylor Hanna, Rafael de la Vega, Klaus; id_orcid 0000-0002-8971-8750 Prettner
article en

Abstract

This brief assesses how demographic change and automation will shape global employment needs by 2050.By breaking down future employment needs into (i) demographic trends, (ii) labour force participation shifts and unemployment targets and (iii) automation impacts, the analysis reveals pronounced regional disparities.Developing economies will face substantial pressure to create jobs, driven primarily by rapid population growth, while advanced economies will confront comparatively modest demographic demand but face higher risks of automation-induced job displacement.In a scenario in which automation proceeds at a moderate pace, and technologies replace human labour faster (by 2.5 per cent per year) than workers can acquire new skills, global demand for new jobs could rise by one billion by 2050.The findings of the analysis highlight the urgency of context-specific policy strategies in labour market governance, skill development, industrial development and the provision of social safety nets to navigate these diverging trajectories.

WU Research
Rafael Advanced Defense Systems (Israel) (IL)
Decent work and economic growth
Openalex Percentile: Top 8%
Digital Economy and Work Transformation
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