Exploring the Potential for Machine Learning-Based Flow Predictions in Sewer Systems

This study explores the potential of machine learning (ML) for predicting flow in sewer systems, using data generated by the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM). A Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network, chosen for its effective handling of time series data, was trained using both hypothetical and real rainfall data. The final model achieved a mean error of 4.6 % in predicting peak flows and demonstrated prediction times that were at least 3 times faster for individual events and up to 600 times faster in mass simulations, compared to an equivalent hydrodynamic model. Tested with 5-fold cross-validation, the model exhibited significant improvements in accuracy and speed compared to its initial version, largely due to enhanced complexity in the model architecture. However, when applied to a more complex sewer system, a decrease in accuracy was observed, underscoring the need for further validation with real-world data. These findings illustrate the promising potential of ML models to boost real-time prediction efficiency but also highlight the need for model adaptation in more complex scenarios.

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Publication Details

Journal
OJS-Service ULBT
Published
2026-03-23
DOI
https://doi.org/10.71573/sdhc7935
Primary Topic
Urban Stormwater Management Solutions
Type
article
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article

Exploring the Potential for Machine Learning-Based Flow Predictions in Sewer Systems

Malte Henrichs, Birgitta Hörnschemeyer, Flemming Albers
OJS-Service ULBT
Urban Stormwater Management Solutions
article

Exploring the Potential for Machine Learning-Based Flow Predictions in Sewer Systems

Malte Henrichs, Birgitta Hörnschemeyer, Flemming Albers
article en

Abstract

This study explores the potential of machine learning (ML) for predicting flow in sewer systems, using data generated by the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM). A Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network, chosen for its effective handling of time series data, was trained using both hypothetical and real rainfall data. The final model achieved a mean error of 4.6 % in predicting peak flows and demonstrated prediction times that were at least 3 times faster for individual events and up to 600 times faster in mass simulations, compared to an equivalent hydrodynamic model. Tested with 5-fold cross-validation, the model exhibited significant improvements in accuracy and speed compared to its initial version, largely due to enhanced complexity in the model architecture. However, when applied to a more complex sewer system, a decrease in accuracy was observed, underscoring the need for further validation with real-world data. These findings illustrate the promising potential of ML models to boost real-time prediction efficiency but also highlight the need for model adaptation in more complex scenarios.

OJS-Service ULBT
FH Münster University of Applied Sciences (DE)
Clean water and sanitation
Openalex Percentile: Top 5%
Urban Stormwater Management Solutions
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Exploring the Potential for Machine Learning-Based Flow Predictions in Sewer Systems — Malte Henrichs, Birgitta Hörnschemeyer, et al. · OJS-Service ULBT (2026) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS