Do Return Migrant Workers Reduce Household Grain Production? Evidence from Rural China

While return migrant workers (RMWs) are increasingly viewed as key to rural development, their specific impact on grain production remains ambiguous. Clarifying this role is critical to manage the dual nature of their reintegration—leveraging valuable resources and knowledge while addressing complex reintegration challenges—to ensure national food security and advance agricultural modernization. Drawing on data from the 2018 China Labor-force Dynamics Survey (CLDS), this study explicitly tests the hypothesis that migration experience significantly reduces the likelihood that RMW households engage in grain production. The empirical results from probit models support this hypothesis, and this finding is robust across multiple specifications. Further analysis shows that migration experience significantly reduces land cultivation scales—especially among larger producers—and increases land abandonment. Additionally, it inhibits technology adoption or invest in agricultural technology. These results suggest that migration experience may weaken, rather than enhance, RMWs’ commitment to grain production, challenging the policy expectation that they can lead agricultural transformation. The study calls for more nuanced policy interventions that account for the structural constraints facing RMW households and their limited contribution to large-scale, efficient grain farming.