The Role of Forest Areas as Carbon Sinks in Türkiye: The Impact of Industrialization and Energy Consumption on Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Aim of study: This study examines the impact of forest area expansion on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Türkiye, focusing on the roles of industrial production, energy consumption, and economic growth.Area of study: The analysis covers Türkiye using annual data for the period 1990–2021. Data on GHG emissions, forest areas, industrial production, energy consumption, and economic growth were obtained from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) and other official sources.Material and method: The study employs the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model and Johansen cointegration approach to analyze the long-run relationships among the variables. Unit root tests were conducted to examine the stationarity properties of the series.Main results: The findings indicate that forest area expansion significantly reduces GHG emissions in the long run, highlighting the role of forests as carbon sinks. In contrast, industrial production, energy consumption, and GDP per capita exert statistically significant positive effects on emissions. The Johansen cointegration results confirm a stable long-run equilibrium relationship among the variables.Research highlights: Achieving Türkiye’s emission reduction targets requires strengthening forest management policies and aligning industrial production and energy consumption with environmental sustainability.