Can Innovation in Novel Energy Storage Technologies Facilitate the Achievement of Dual-Control Energy Targets?—A Complex Mediation Perspective Empowered by the Industry–University–Government Integrated Innovation Ecosystem

To explore whether the causal chain of “Industry–University–Government Integrated Innovation Ecosystem → Novel Energy Storage Technology Innovation → Dual-Control Energy Targets” can be achieved, this study analyzes panel data from 30 provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions in China (excluding Tibet, Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) from 2010 to 2022. By employing a complex mediation effect model combining dynamic Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) and the dynamic panel system Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) model, this study identifies five configuration pathways for driving innovation in novel energy storage technologies within an integrated innovation ecosystem. These include two industry digitalization–university innovation resource-dominant pathways: a government-light and digitally driven “university–industry” resource-sharing and knowledge-conversion synergy, and an industry leadership pathway embedded with university collaborative innovation under a digitalization framework. Two policy-driven hybrid and industry–leadership synergistic pathways are also extracted: a growth pathway for policy-supported hybrid organizations under insufficient industry digitalization and a policy-driven innovation substitution pathway compensating for the absence of university niche roles. Additionally, a multidimensional collaborative development pathway is identified, reflecting comprehensive collaboration. In the dynamic panel system GMM model, all five pathways collectively suppress total energy consumption and energy intensity, while also indirectly driving the achievement of dual-control energy targets through innovation in novel energy storage technologies. Pathways driven by government-light and digitally facilitated collaboration, industry leadership, and comprehensive collaboration show significant direct negative effects on energy consumption and intensity. However, the policy-driven innovation substitution pathway exhibits limited contribution due to the absence of university innovation components, thereby failing to significantly advance regional dual-control energy goals.