Spatiotemporal drivers of carbon footprint pressure in China’s Yangtze River Economic Belt: a GTWR approach

As a critical engine of China’s economic growth and ecological security, the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) faces the dual challenge of sustaining development while mitigating carbon footprint pressure (CFP). This study examines the driving forces and spatiotemporal heterogeneity of CFP in the YREB from 2000 to 2021, aiming to support the region’s contribution to the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. By integrating an extended STIRPAT model with Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression (GTWR) and General Dominance Analysis (GDA), we isolate the specific contributions of population, affluence, and technology. The results indicate that: (1) economic inertia remains the dominant stressor, with population growth and economic expansion significantly increasing CFP, outweighing the mitigation effects of energy efficiency improvements; (2) the industrial structure has shifted roles, transitioning from a primary driver of carbon pressure to an inhibitor in later years, reflecting effective policy interventions in the tertiary sector; and (3) spatial heterogeneity is pronounced, with the midstream region identified as the critical “governance bottleneck” due to high industrial intensity, whereas the downstream region exhibits advanced decoupling trends. These findings suggest that single-dimensional energy transitions are insufficient for the YREB; a differentiated regional strategy focusing on midstream industrial upgrading is essential for achieving carbon neutrality.