Macroeconomic stability in European Countries across successive crises: A pentagon-based composite index approach

Type of the article: Research ArticleAbstractThe COVID-19 pandemic, the energy and inflation shock, and the Russian–Ukrainian war have challenged macroeconomic stability in European countries while exposing the limitations of traditional, single-indicator assessments. This study aims to analyze the evolution and structural drivers of macroeconomic stability across successive crisis regimes in European countries by applying a pentagon-based composite index that captures the joint interactions among growth, inflation, fiscal balance, labor-market conditions, and external positions. The empirical analysis is based on annual macroeconomic data for European countries over 2019–2024 and employs policy-consistent distance-to-target normalization combined with a non-additive pentagon-area aggregation method. The results indicate that macroeconomic stability was relatively high before the shocks, with an average index value of approximately 0.61 in 2019, reflecting broadly balanced macroeconomic conditions. In 2020, stability collapsed to an average of about 0.15, driven primarily by the near-universal contraction in GDP growth and the deterioration of fiscal balances. A partial recovery followed in 2021, when the average index increased to around 0.35, but persistent fiscal imbalances prevented a full return to pre-crisis stability. In 2022, macroeconomic stability deteriorated again, with the average index falling to roughly 0.21 as inflation moved far outside the tolerance corridor in more than 90%. The subsequent period was characterized by heterogeneous and incomplete adjustment. By 2024, overall stability improved to an average of approximately 0.41 following the normalization of inflation. However, countries with chronic fiscal and external imbalances continued to exhibit low levels of stability, underscoring the non-compensatory nature of macroeconomic stability.AcknowledgmentThis study was conducted within the framework of the MSCA4Ukraine project 06030419, funded by the European Union. Views and opinions expressed are, however, those of the author(s) only and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Union, the European Research Executive Agency or the MSCA4Ukraine Consortium. Neither the European Union, the European Research Executive Agency, nor the MSCA4Ukraine Consortium, nor any individual member institution of the MSCA4Ukraine Consortium can be held responsible for them. The publication of this paper was funded by EKA University of Applied Sciences (Latvia) and Daugavpils University (Latvia).