Predicting the Potential Distribution of Amyelois transitella (Walker) in China Under Climate Change Using a Biomod2-Based Ensemble Model

The Navel Orangeworm (Amyelois transitella Walker, 1863), a primary pest of nut crops native to North America, poses a significant potential threat to China’s agricultural biosecurity, yet its potential distribution dynamics under climate change remain unquantified. This study utilized the Biomod2 ensemble model platform to predict habitat suitability under current and future climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5). We evaluated the prediction accuracy of the ensemble model using calibration data, with TSS = 0.898 and AUC = 0.978, while spatially stratified cross-validation confirmed moderate spatial transferability to novel environments (median validation AUC = 0.60–0.75). The model identified thermal factors—Temperature Seasonality (Bio4) and the Mean Temperature of the Wettest Quarter (Bio8)—as the dominant drivers of distribution. While currently climatically suitable habitats are primarily confined to the tropical and subtropical regions of southern China, projections indicate a complex spatial shift driven by future warming: optimal southern habitats will undergo a net contraction due to heat stress, whereas low and moderately suitable areas will expand northward into key temperate agricultural areas. These results highlight that climate change will substantially alter the spatial topology of the pest’s climatic envelope, providing a critical scientific baseline of climatic suitability. These projections do not equate to realized invasion risk, which is further constrained by host availability, land use, irrigation, and human transport, offering a conservative framework for prioritizing early surveillance and optimizing quarantine measures.