Land-Use Change and Surface Warming in Uganda’s Oil-Rich Albertine Region (1995–2025): A Geodetector Analysis

• LULC change strongly influences land surface temperature in the Albertine region. • Vegetation quality is a key regulator of localized warming and cooling effects. • Protected areas indirectly reduce surface heating by conserving intact ecosystems. • Urban growth linked to oil activities intensifies localized warming without greening. • Geodetector reveals strong interactions between LULC and ecological drivers of LST. Rapid land-use change driven by anthropogenic activities is transforming Uganda’s oil-rich Albertine region with implications for ecosystem degradation and regional surface warming. This study examines land use land cover (LULC) change and its influence on land surface temperature (LST) between 1995 and 2025. It also evaluates how spatial driving factors, such as vegetation condition (NDVI), elevation, proximity to water bodies, and protected areas interact with LULC to influence LST patterns. LULC was classified and LST was derived from satellite imagery for 1995, 2005, 2015 and 2025. The Geodetector model was used to quantify the explanatory power of LULC and its interactions with spatial driving factors on the spatial distribution of LST. Forests, wetlands, and grasslands declined by 26%, 18%, and 32%, respectively, while commercial plantations and built-up areas expanded more than fivefold. Mean LST increased by 5–8 °C across land-cover types, with built-up areas and commercial plantations recording the highest temperatures. The explanatory power of LULC on LST increased from a q-statistic of 0.639 in 1995 to 0.791 in 2025. Interactions between LULC and NDVI showed the strongest influence (q-statistic of 0.859), indicating that vegetation condition significantly modifies land use–related temperature patterns. Elevation and proximity to water bodies moderated LST patterns, while protected areas indirectly reduced warming by maintaining intact vegetation cover. These findings demonstrate that LST variability in the Albertine region is influenced by land use change and its interactions with vegetation condition, elevation, proximity to water bodies and protected areas. They provide spatial evidence to inform sustainable land use planning, conservation policy, and oil development that priorities climate risk reduction.