Exploring the Determinants of Civil War in Ethiopia: A Synthetic Approach

This study provides a comprehensive analysis of the factors determining the onset of civil war in Ethiopia from 1974 to 2023, utilizing logistic regression models that incorporate variables from both the greed and grievance approaches. Drawing on data from the international armed conflict dataset, which documented over 38 civil war events spanning 5 decades, this study addresses the key question of what explanatory factors lead to civil war in Ethiopia. This research applies and tests the greed and grievance theory, which posits that a combination of economic factors and socio-political injustices precipitates civil conflict and see within the context of Ethiopia. Contrary to the commonly held belief that attributes civil wars in Africa to ethnic and religious diversity, the logistic regression analyses reveal that ethnic diversity does not act as a causal factor for civil war in Ethiopia. Similarly, political repression is found to be statistically insignificant, deviating from theoretical predictions by showing no significant relationship between political repression and the incidence of civil war. However, variables such as GDP per capita, democracy, and male secondary school enrollment emerge as significant determinants of civil war occurrence in Ethiopia. While population size remains statistically significant in the analysis, but its marginal effect indicates an almost negligible impact on civil war determination in the Ethiopian context. To mitigate civil war risks, this study recommends prioritizing improvements in education, strengthening democratic institutions, and addressing economic disparities through development and poverty alleviation policies. Further research is needed on ethnic and political dynamics, as this study found no significant correlation between ethnic fractionalization or political repression and civil conflict.