Evaluation of fisheries trends and sustainability metrics of Omani fisheries (1985–2022)

The fisheries sector in Oman has experienced significant growth in volume over the last decade; however, issues of sustainability and economic efficiency remain insufficiently defined. This longitudinal analysis (1985–2022) assesses fisheries production, economic performance, and trophic structure to identify constraints to sustainability and provide a foundation for policy reform. Descriptive statistics, Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) analysis, and species composition assessment were used to analyze secondary data from the Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Water Resources. The evaluation of economic efficiency used unit-value metrics, specifically total economic value per metric ton, whereas sustainability was assessed through trophic-level dynamics, serving as an indicator of ecosystem pressure. Following 2011, the sector underwent a structural shift, achieving a compound annual growth rate of 15.5% through 2022, resulting in total landings of 748,357 metric tons. This expansion coincided with a 19.1% decrease in unit value, indicating that low-value sardines accounted for 37.5% of national landings by 2022. The 18.8% decline in production in 2022, along with the depletion of high-value demersal and pelagic stocks, suggests overfishing of recruitment and ecosystem degradation. Post-harvest fish losses resulted in significant economic losses, which decreased the sector’s value. The findings illustrate a volume-value paradox, in which biomass growth conceals economic and ecological decline under open-access governance. The deoxygenation of the Arabian Sea, driven by climate factors, further undermines ecosystem resilience. The transition to rights-based management and ecosystem-integrated approaches is essential for achieving the goals of Oman Vision 2040.