Where have the Hungarian minority parties gone? Ethnicization and limited minority mobilization in the 2023 parliamentary election in Slovakia

This article examines why Hungarian minority parties in Slovakia failed to gain parliament seats in the 2023 election despite their formal unification. Using municipal-level data from 16 districts in southern Slovakia, we analyze spatial patterns of support for the main ethnic Hungarian party, Szövetség-Aliancia, and the factors associated with its vote. The results show that Szövetség-Aliancia’s electoral support remains overwhelmingly ethnicized, with a strong and uniform effect of ethnic cleavage. However, the analysis also reveals considerable internal heterogeneity in mobilization within the minority. Voter turnout was systematically lower in ethnically heterogeneous municipalities, indicating uneven electoral mobilization and widespread abstention among the minority electorate. The findings show that although ethnic voting persists, limited mobilization, rather than interparty competition suggested by the nested competition and ethnic outbidding models, has become the key constraint on minority political representation.