Dynamic Risk Evolution and Adaptive Synchronization Control for Human–Machine–Environment Coupled Nuclear Emergency System: Based on Comprehensive On-Site Emergency Drills of Nuclear Power Plants

As nuclear energy expands, nuclear emergency response systems increasingly exhibit strong human–machine–environment (H–M–E) coupling, long-duration operations, and multi-department coordination, in which minor disturbances can be amplified by feedback loops into cascading failures and loss of situational control. To address the inability of conventional static and linear methods to represent dynamic risk evolution and chaotic uncertainty, this study proposes an integrated “risk network–chaotic evolution–synchronization control” framework. Based on 12-year-old on-site comprehensive drill reports from a Chinese nuclear power base, we construct a directed H–M–E risk network in a semi-quantitative, qualitative–quantitative manner and identify critical nodes using a composite betweenness–PageRank risk metric. We further abstract the system into a three-dimensional nonlinear coupled dynamical model; phase portraits, Lyapunov exponents, and bifurcation analysis confirm threshold effects, period-doubling routes, and chaotic attractors, revealing nonlinear amplification under strong coupling. Finally, an adaptive chaotic synchronization controller driven by network coupling strength is designed. Simulations show all strategies suppress chaos and achieve synchronization, while the machine-dominated strategy offers the best speed–energy trade-off for emergency resource allocation.