Land Subsidence and Earthquake-Timed Vertical Offsets in the Messara Basin, Crete: EGMS-Based Screening for the 2021 Mw 6.0 Arkalochori Earthquake

Land subsidence and coseismic deformation can interact in groundwater-stressed sedimentary basins, yet basin-scale identification of event-timed vertical offsets in InSAR products requires explicit control of referencing and processing effects. This study evaluates whether the 27 September 2021 Arkalochori earthquake (Mw 6.0; central Crete) produced detectable coseismic vertical offsets within the Messara Basin by applying a reproducible screening workflow to Copernicus European Ground Motion Service (EGMS) Level-3 Vertical time series, from two processing generations (EGMS 2015–2021 and EGMS 2018–2022). An event-centered step metric (stepEQ), defined as the difference between post-event and pre-event mean displacements over a fixed acquisition window, is evaluated across three fixed spatial masks (MESSARA, R15060, R8750) together with a dispersion-based precision proxy (σstep) and a cross-generation sensitivity diagnostic (ΔstepEQ). A supplementary 2 + 2 subset sensitivity analysis indicates that the adopted fixed 3 + 3 estimator is stable at the basin scale, with sensitivity concentrated mainly in threshold-adjacent cases. Results indicate that Arkalochori-related offsets are not expressed as a basin-wide step across Messara; instead, non-background responses form a spatially limited and coherent subset concentrated where the basin intersects the near-source footprint. In EGMS 2018–2022, the higher vertical offset class (C2; |stepEQ| > 40 mm) is exclusively subsidence-direction and is enriched toward the screening center (up to ~19% within the radii mask R8750 m) but remains sparse at the basin scale mask (MESSARA mask) (~1%). Step-dominated points co-locate with strongly subsiding mean vertical velocity regimes and are hosted almost entirely by post-Alpine basin deposits, indicating strong material and background-deformation conditioning of step detectability. Cross-generation comparison shows basin-scale stability of background behavior but localized near-source sensitivity, supporting use of ΔstepEQ as a Quality Control (QC) lens for threshold-adjacent interpretations. The workflow provides a transparent, transferable approach for prioritizing candidate coseismic-step locations in EGMS time series. Results are interpreted as screening-level evidence in the derived vertical signal using event timing, spatial coherence, and QC diagnostics.