The ‘environment-economy’ asymmetric effect of land conservation and intensive use policies: evidence from quasi-natural experiments at the county level in China

Abstract This study treats the selection of land conservation and intensive use model counties as a quasi-natural experiment. Using Chinese county-level panel data, we evaluate the multidimensional impacts of the land conservation and intensive use policy (LCIUP). We find that LCIUP reduced PM2.5 concentrations in counties while simultaneously lowering per capita GDP, exerting a positive effect on environmental quality but a negative inhibitory effect on economic growth, showing a distinct environment–economy asymmetry. LCIUP restricts industrial land supply and curbs the entry of polluting enterprises, but fails to facilitate industrial transformation and upgrading. Counties reliant on secondary industries face significant industrial transformation lock-in challenges, while those with substantial market potential can achieve dual economic and environmental goals. Green finance policies effectively complement LCIUP to promote industrial transformation and upgrading, whereas technological innovation and talent attraction policies currently lack such synergy. Cost–benefit analysis confirms that LCIUP’s marginal environmental benefits outweigh economic losses.