Sustainable agricultural development in the context of low carbon economy: exploring the energy carbon Nexus and green transition in agricultural sector

This study examines the coupling coordination between energy consumption and carbon emissions in China’s agricultural sector and explores its implications for the low carbon transition. Using a coupling coordination model and provincial panel data from 2012 to 2021, the study assesses the level of energy carbon coordination in China’s agricultural sector and analyzes its key determinants. Fixed effects models evaluate the impact of terminal energy structure, while mediation analysis tests whether agricultural carbon emission intensity transmits these effects. Additionally, out of sample validation and short term scenario projections are used to examine temporal stability. The results show that energy carbon coordination in China’s agricultural sector is generally at a moderate to good level, indicating progress toward green transformation, although substantial regional disparities remain. Terminal energy structure is a key determinant, higher coal and diesel shares significantly reduce coordination, whereas a higher natural gas share improves it. Mediation analysis further shows that agricultural carbon emission intensity partly transmits these effects. Regional heterogeneity is observed, low GDP provinces are mainly constrained by coal dependence, while high GDP provinces face stronger diesel and electricity related emission pressures. The out of sample validation and short term scenario projections provide additional support for the temporal stability of these findings. These findings highlight the need for region specific decarbonization strategies in China’s agricultural sector, including accelerated clean energy substitution, power sector decarbonization, stronger carbon monitoring, and improved cross sector policy coordination.