Potential Changes in Suitable Habitats of Prunus laurocerasus in Türkiye under the Impacts of Global Climate Change

Global climate change is widely recognized as a largely irreversible process driven predominantly by anthropogenic activities. This phenomenon, which poses particularly severe threats to plant species, necessitates the identification of potential changes in species’ suitable habitats in order to develop effective preventive and adaptive strategies. In this study, potential changes in the suitable habitats of Prunus laurocerasus L.—a species of considerable importance for agricultural, landscaping, and forestry practices in Türkiye—were assessed using the Random Forest (RF) model. The current and future suitable distribution areas of the species were evaluated under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 climate scenarios. The results indicate that by the year 2100, the potential suitable habitat of P. laurocerasus is projected to increase by approximately 19.52% under the SSP2-4.5 scenario and by 18.67% under the SSP5-8.5 scenario compared to its current distribution. However, because natural dispersal to newly emerging suitable habitats is considered unlikely, population losses are expected to occur despite the overall increase in climatically suitable areas.