Prediction of Postoperative Stroke in Elderly Surgical ICU Patients Using Random Forest Model: Development on MIMIC-IV with Cross-Institutional and Temporal External Validation

Postoperative stroke is a serious and fatal condition that often affects elderly surgical patients. This rare but severe complication arises from complex interactions between comorbidities, physiologic instability and demographic disturbances that traditional risk tools often fail to capture.This study aims to develop and validate a machine learning model with an improved ability to predict the risk of postoperative stroke in elderly patients utilising the comprehensive clinical and demographic ICU data from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV (MIMIC-IV) database. External validation was performed on MIMIC-III and the eICU Collaborative Research Database, with eICU being the primary validation set. We identified postoperative surgical intensive care unit (SICU) patients aged 55 years or older from all databases. A strict temporal window of the first 24 h of ICU admission was applied across all three datasets while extracting features like laboratory measurements and vital sign summaries in order to ensure that all predictor values were derived from a fixed observation period at the beginning of ICU stay. After preprocessing, applying Multivariate Imputation by Chained Equations (MICE) imputation and initial screening of 88 candidate variables, 20 clinically meaningful predictors were selected through a multistage feature selection pipeline incorporating RFECV and permutation importance. SHAP analysis and LIME analysis were used for interpretability. We evaluated ten machine learning techniques, including Logistic Regression, Decision Tree, Random Forest, K-Nearest Neighbors (KNNs), Support Vector Machine (SVM–RBF Kernel), Gradient Boosting (GBDT), Neural Network, XGBoost, CatBoost, Naive Bayes. Among them, Random Forest demonstrated strong predictive performance by achieving an AUROC of 0.8072 (95% CI [0.7890, 0.8253]) on the internal validation set. The model also achieved AUROC of 0.7557 (95% CI [0.7267, 0.7794]) and 0.9144 (95% CI [0.8893, 0.9378]) on the external validation sets eICU and MIMIC-III, respectively. Mean systolic blood pressure, Elixhauser score, minimum calcium, and minimum INR (PT) were consistently identified as the most influential predictors through both SHAP analysis and LIME analysis, thus strengthening model interpretability. Our findings suggest that a Random Forest-based predictive model can provide an accurate and generalisable prediction of postoperative stroke in elderly ICU patients using routinely collected physiologic and laboratory data. This also supports early risk stratification and targeted postoperative monitoring.