Producing more rice with fewer emissions: a global meta-analysis

Feeding a growing population while mitigating climate change demands the transformation of rice systems, which sustain over half the global population yet contribute 50% of grain-related greenhouse gas emissions. We conducted a meta-analysis of 5322 field experiments from 504 peer-reviewed studies (1991–2024), employing Bayesian multivariate methods to model yield-emission trade-off across all production stages. Yield improvements generally outpace increases in emissions, thereby reducing greenhouse gas intensity. Key win-win practices include Dry-Direct-Seeding (13% emission reduction with yields comparable to transplanting), Alternate-Wetting-Drying (12% emission reduction, 4% yield increase), optimised nitrogen management (39% yield increase), and strategic residue removal. Practice effectiveness varies substantially by context: high-baseline environments (organic-rich soils, warm climates, wet seasons) emit 33–44% more greenhouse gases than low-baseline systems but produce similar yields, revealing mitigation opportunities. Context- tailored practice selection can reconcile food security with climate goals, though scaling up requires coordinated policy support addressing economic barriers and infrastructure constraints.