Revealing Migration Selectivity Through the Combination of Intention and Preparation: Evidence From African Migration

ABSTRACT A key explanation for variation in migration outcomes across destinations lies in the selectivity of migrants. This paper argues that combining intended destination with migration preparation provides a useful indicator of early‐stage migration selectivity, capturing how migrants with different destination intentions differ before departure. Using Afrobarometer Round 7 data, the study examines how educational attainment and religious affiliation shape migration preparation across three destination regions: Africa, Europe and North America. The findings highlight three salient patterns: (1) preparation for Europe follows a bifurcated pattern, with the highest and lowest educated more likely to prepare; (2) post‐secondary education is positively associated with migration preparation for North America; (3) Muslim affiliation is positively associated with preparation for intra‐African migration. These results suggest that preparation, when considered in conjunction with intended destination, provides a valuable proxy for early‐stage selection that is aligned with, and complementary to, existing evidence on migrant selectivity at destination.