Industrial solid waste management systems: Model development and strategic implementation

Industrial solid waste (ISW) is a critical issue for sustainable development. Strengthening ISW management is essential for promoting the clean production process and transforming industrial structures towards eco-friendly models. The present study developed an advanced management system to identify the influencing factors of ISW generation and conduct projections, supported by machine learning methods. The results show that the stacking model StackNet2 is the optimal model for China’s ISW generation projection, with a mean absolute percentage error value of 6.65%. Scenario analyses reveal that China’s ISW generation continues to rise overall in the baseline scenario and stabilizes at 7.1 (±0.36) billion tons in 2050, while the positive circular economy and technology-driven scenarios decrease it to approximately 3 billion tons with a 42% reduction. The study further uncovers dynamic variations in waste management efficiency, where utilization efficiency is not only influenced by technological and managerial strategies but also significantly depends on the scale of waste generation. Based on these predictions, the constructed ISW management system is expected to help policymakers optimize solid waste management decision-making. • Waste management systems for rapidly industrializing regions were constructed. • A stacking model was developed for ISW generation prediction with MAPE = 6.65%. • Dynamic ISW utilization efficiency depended on generation scale and technology. • Policymakers are provided with tools to optimize waste facility planning and resource allocation.