Estimating the need for palliative care services in Australia by 2042

As in many countries, Australians are living longer and experience greater rates of chronic conditions. This can require greater use of palliative care services. However, there is limited research on how many people would benefit from palliative care. The aim of this study is to estimate the current and future need for palliative care services in Australia and within geographical regions. Using national mortality data and population projections, the study used two methods to estimate the observed (2011 to 2022) palliative care need in Australia by age, sex, and geographical area. These were: 75% of all deaths would require palliative care; and a diagnostic based approach on main underlying cause of death. These methods were used to estimate the future need for palliative care, applying the proportion of palliative deaths to the Australian Bureau of Statistics projected deaths to 2042 using 75%, the 2022 proportion of diagnostic-based deaths, and the mean annual change in proportion of these deaths from 2011 to 2022. Analyses were also performed across sex, age group, geographical areas and disease group to identify areas of increasing palliative care need. The two methods demonstrated a growing need for palliative care in the observed and projected period. From 2011 to 2022, there was an 18 to 30% increase in the number of people who needed palliative care. From 2023 to 2042, there will be an increase of 37 to 65% in the number of people needing palliative care. People aged over 85 years, as well as people living with cancer and dementia are expected to drive the future need for palliative care. The need for palliative care in regional and remote areas is greater than that in the major cities. Current workforce trends in Australia are unlikely to meet the growing need for palliative care. Future palliative care services must be developed in line with these findings and further research is required ensure an adequate supply of palliative care to match the expected demand.