The global geography of plant invasion risk under future climate and land-use changes

Biological invasions by plants pose a growing threat to biodiversity. Here we model potential current and future distributions of 9,701 naturalized alien plant species to project their potential spread by the end of the twenty-first century. Our analysis reveals that 33.9% of the global land surface is suitable for at least 10% of these species, identifying key hotspots for invasion. Under future climate and land-use scenarios, these hotspots are projected to expand moderately to 37.7% and 36.6% of land surface under mild and severe changes, respectively. However, this moderate absolute increase conceals substantial spatial shifts in hotspot locations, with expansion into currently cooler regions and contraction in hotter, drier areas. Additionally, we observe substantial species turnover within regional naturalized plant pools, indicating not only increases in plant invasion risk, but also shifts in the composition of the alien plant species pools. Our models predict regionally divergent responses of naturalized plant richness and species pool composition to climate and land-use changes.

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Publication Details

Journal
Nature Ecology & Evolution
Published
2026-03-27
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-026-03040-2
Primary Topic
Species Distribution and Climate Change
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
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article

The global geography of plant invasion risk under future climate and land-use changes

Andreas Gattringer, Franz Essl, Johannes Wessely, Petr Pyšek et al.
Nature Ecology & Evolution
Species Distribution and Climate Change
article

The global geography of plant invasion risk under future climate and land-use changes

Andreas Gattringer, Franz Essl, Johannes Wessely, Petr Pyšek, Bernd Lenzner, Damaris Zurell, Ali Omer, Matthias Grenié, Stefan Dullinger, Dietmar Moser, Anna Schertler, Nicole Kinlock, Mark van Kleunen, Amy J. S. Davis, Marten Winter, Trevor S. Fristoe, Wayne Dawson, Adrián García-Rodríguez, Jan Pergl, Patrick Weigelt, Holger Kreft
article en

Abstract

Biological invasions by plants pose a growing threat to biodiversity. Here we model potential current and future distributions of 9,701 naturalized alien plant species to project their potential spread by the end of the twenty-first century. Our analysis reveals that 33.9% of the global land surface is suitable for at least 10% of these species, identifying key hotspots for invasion. Under future climate and land-use scenarios, these hotspots are projected to expand moderately to 37.7% and 36.6% of land surface under mild and severe changes, respectively. However, this moderate absolute increase conceals substantial spatial shifts in hotspot locations, with expansion into currently cooler regions and contraction in hotter, drier areas. Additionally, we observe substantial species turnover within regional naturalized plant pools, indicating not only increases in plant invasion risk, but also shifts in the composition of the alien plant species pools. Our models predict regionally divergent responses of naturalized plant richness and species pool composition to climate and land-use changes.

Nature Ecology & Evolution
Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (FR), University of Vienna (AT), Radboud University Nijmegen (NL), University of Liverpool (GB), University of Khartoum (SD), University of Puerto Rico at Río Piedras (PR), University of Potsdam (DE), University of Konstanz (DE), Charles University (CZ), German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (DE), Radboud University Medical Center (NL), Institute for Biodiversity (DE), Radboud Institute for Molecular Life Sciences (NL), Czech Academy of Sciences, Institute of Botany (CZ), Laboratoire d'Écologie Alpine (FR), Université Savoie Mont Blanc (FR), University of Göttingen (DE), Taizhou University (CN), Université Grenoble Alpes (FR)
Climate action
Openalex Percentile: Top 4%
Species Distribution and Climate Change
DOIOpen Access PDFOpenAlex
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