Stochastic Sirs Modeling of Greenhouse Strawberry Infections and Integration with Computer Vision-Based Mobile Spraying Robot

Viral and fungal diseases of greenhouse strawberries lead to significant crop losses, while traditional uniform spraying schemes do not account for the actual distribution of infection foci or changes in the microclimate. This paper proposes an integrated system for greenhouse farms that combines a stochastic SIRS model of the epidemic process with a microclimate-dependent infection coefficient βeff(t), a computer vision module based on a lightweight YOLOv10n detector, and a mobile sprayer robot. For three sets of parameters corresponding to moderate infection, outbreak, and suppression scenarios, ensemble simulations are performed (100 realizations per scenario). The results show that the maximum number of infected plants reaches approximately 690 out of 1000 in the outbreak scenario and only about 28 out of 1000 in the suppression scenario, reflecting the effect of timely microclimate correction and local spraying. The YOLOv10n detector is used as a sensor to determine the proportion of affected plants I(0)/N and provides automatic formation of the initial conditions of the population model. The resulting forecasts then serve as the basis for selecting one of three operating modes for the spraying robot (observation, microclimate correction, local treatment). Unlike existing works that consider disease detection, epidemiological models, or robotic spraying separately, this paper proposes a unified closed-loop scheme of “computer vision—stochastic model—mobile robot,” linking detection quality with epidemic process forecasting and treatment strategy. In this study, the feasibility of the proposed system was examined through numerical simulations, detector-level performance evaluation, and offline image-based integrated validation of the detector-to-decision workflow. Full closed-loop experiments in a real greenhouse environment are planned for future work.