Forest Recovery or Shrubland Assembly? Vegetation Dynamics in Abandoned Atlantic Forest Highland Pastures

ABSTRACT Understanding successional trajectories in abandoned lands is critical for predicting forest recovery potential in the Atlantic Forest, a global biodiversity hotspot. Over a decade of field monitoring (2014–2025) in permanent plots in the subtropical highlands of southern Brazil, we analyzed the dynamics of tree‐shrub components in abandoned pastures established after cloud forest clearing, tracking temporal changes in abundance, species richness, height, and floristic similarity to reference forests. We used Generalized Additive Mixed Models and survival analysis to assess temporal trends and mortality patterns. Abandoned pastures showed significant increases in woody plant abundance (+62.5%, p < 0.001) and species richness (+55.5%, p < 0.001), with mean height increasing marginally (+13%, p = 0.041). However, floristic similarity to forest reference communities remained unchanged at approximately 20% throughout the monitoring period ( p = 0.987). Survival analysis revealed higher seedling survival in abandoned pastures compared to natural grassland (HR = 8.77, 95% CI: 6.62–11.61). The contrasting patterns between structural recovery (increasing abundance and richness) and the absence of compositional convergence toward forest communities (static floristic similarity) suggest that abandoned highland pastures may be developing along divergent successional trajectories rather than progressing toward forest recovery. These findings raise questions about whether passive regeneration alone can achieve forest recovery goals within reasonable restoration timeframes in subtropical highlands with similar land‐use histories.