Foreshock Migration Preceding the 2025 Mw 8.8 Kamchatka Earthquake: Insights From Single‐Station Observations

Abstract We investigate the spatiotemporal evolution of foreshocks preceding the 2025 Mw 8.8 Kamchatka earthquake by applying single‐station analysis to waveforms recorded at the nearest seismic station. Our results reveal a southwestward migration of foreshocks toward the mainshock epicenter through multiple stages, with a migration speed of ∼7.0 km/day, comparable to that of slow slip events along subduction zones, suggesting that aseismic slip may accompany the foreshock activity. The foreshocks occurred near the southern edge of the reduced kinematic locking of plate interface, where the relatively young and warmer slab is subducting. Repeated migrating transients likely acted as efficient stress transfers, potentially associated with slow slip, progressively loading the nucleation area and promoting rupture initiation, while also contributing to the progressive weakening of the locked megathrust. Together, these observations support a model in which migrating foreshocks reflects progressive stress redistribution that prepares the fault for catastrophic failure.

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Publication Details

Journal
Geophysical Research Letters
Published
2026-03-27
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl120956
Primary Topic
earthquake and tectonic studies
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
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article

Foreshock Migration Preceding the 2025 Mw 8.8 Kamchatka Earthquake: Insights From Single‐Station Observations

Ji Zhang, A. Kato, Wei Wang, Miao Zhang
Geophysical Research Letters
earthquake and tectonic studies
article

Foreshock Migration Preceding the 2025 Mw 8.8 Kamchatka Earthquake: Insights From Single‐Station Observations

Ji Zhang, A. Kato, Wei Wang, Miao Zhang
article en

Abstract

Abstract We investigate the spatiotemporal evolution of foreshocks preceding the 2025 Mw 8.8 Kamchatka earthquake by applying single‐station analysis to waveforms recorded at the nearest seismic station. Our results reveal a southwestward migration of foreshocks toward the mainshock epicenter through multiple stages, with a migration speed of ∼7.0 km/day, comparable to that of slow slip events along subduction zones, suggesting that aseismic slip may accompany the foreshock activity. The foreshocks occurred near the southern edge of the reduced kinematic locking of plate interface, where the relatively young and warmer slab is subducting. Repeated migrating transients likely acted as efficient stress transfers, potentially associated with slow slip, progressively loading the nucleation area and promoting rupture initiation, while also contributing to the progressive weakening of the locked megathrust. Together, these observations support a model in which migrating foreshocks reflects progressive stress redistribution that prepares the fault for catastrophic failure.

Geophysical Research LettersVol. 53(7)
Dalhousie University (CA), Chinese Academy of Sciences (CN), Association for the Development of Earthquake Prediction (JP), Institute of Geology and Geophysics (CN), University of Chinese Academy of Sciences (CN), The University of Tokyo (JP)
Climate action
Openalex Percentile: Top 4%
earthquake and tectonic studies
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Foreshock Migration Preceding the 2025 Mw 8.8 Kamchatka Earthquake: Insights From Single‐Station Observations — Ji Zhang, A. Kato, et al. · Geophysical Research Letters (2026) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS