Breakeven levelized cost of hydrogen for the zero-emission freight transition

The California Air Resources Board (CARB) Advanced Clean Fleets (ACF) regulation mandates a complete transition to zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) sales by 2042, posing significant challenges for the heavy-duty trucking sector. Fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) are promising for long-haul freight due to their extended range and fast refueling. This study builds upon the Integrating Market Penetration and Cost Technologies (IMPACT), a closed-loop simulation framework used to evaluate the levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) and to identify the breakeven conditions under which FCEVs can achieve total cost of ownership (TCO) parity with diesel trucks. The model integrates vehicle cost evolution, market adoption dynamics, and hydrogen infrastructure deployment across a 2025–2050 horizon, projecting fleet sizes, hydrogen demand, and refueling station utilization. Under a mature-network benchmark (UR = 1.0) representing operation at rated design throughput, LCOH declines from $11.51/kg in 2025 to $4.26/kg by 2050. The breakeven threshold for 5-year TCO parity falls within $4.90–5.85/kg, intersecting modeled cost trajectories around 2040–2045 for heavy-duty fuel-cell trucks. By 2050, statewide hydrogen demand reaches 3,200 metric tons per day under the high-adoption scenario, requiring 516 high-throughput stations to refuel 145,000 heavy-duty FCEVs. These findings indicate that hydrogen cost convergence is primarily driven by utilization scaling effects within coordinated vehicle–infrastructure dynamics, rather than being solely attributable to production cost reductions. By quantifying time-varying breakeven LCOH thresholds, this study reframes hydrogen competitiveness as a systems-level scaling challenge in zero-emission freight transitions. • Develops the Integrating Market Penetration and Cost Technologies (IMPACT) framework. • Projects LCOH declining from $11.51/kg (2025) to $4.26/kg (2050) under mature utilization conditions. • Identifies a breakeven LCOH band of $4.90–5.85/kg for heavy-duty FCEV–diesel TCO parity. • Quantifies hydrogen demand of 3,200 metric tons/day supported by 516 high-throughput stations by 2050. • Demonstrates utilization-driven scaling as a key mechanism shaping hydrogen competitiveness.