Industrial Park-Based Energy Transition Policies and Urban Carbon Intensity: Evidence Using China’s Low-Carbon Industrial Park Pilots

In response to global climate change, low-carbon transition in the industrial sector has become essential for emission reduction. Industrial parks, as concentrated centers of production, are major sources of urban energy use and carbon emissions. Whether park-based policy interventions can generate broader decarbonization effects remains unclear. This study conceptualizes China’s National Low-Carbon Industrial Park Pilot Policy (NLCIPP) as a meso-level systemic intervention and examines its impact on urban carbon intensity (UCI). Using panel data for 282 Chinese cities from 2006 to 2020, causal effects are identified through a multi-period DID framework combined with a synthetic DID approach. The results show that the NLCIPP significantly reduces UCI, indicating that energy-oriented interventions at the industrial park level can induce broader decarbonization outcomes. The policy effect mainly works via reduced energy consumption and enhanced green technological capability, while the contribution of industrial structural upgrading is relatively limited. Stronger impacts appear in central regions, cities with stricter environmental regulation, and non-resource-based cities, highlighting the context-dependent effectiveness of energy transition policies. These findings provide empirical evidence for designing effective industrial energy policies to promote low-carbon transition.