DEMOGRAPHIC DIVIDEND VS. DEMOGRAPHIC BURDEN: CAN INDIA CAPITALIZE ON ITS YOUTH BULGE BY 2030?

India is in the process of a demographic transition phase where a significant portion of the population of the country falls within the working-age bracket. By 2025, the Indian population is estimated to be close to 68 percent between the age groups of 15 to 64, thus making it one of the youngest developed economies in the world (United Nations, 2024, pp. 2227).[15] This young structure has often been theorised as a potential demographic bonus, which has the potential of accelerating the economic growth rate, innovation, and social development. However, such a demographic advantage may also transform into a liability in case of inability to find proper jobs, the supply of skills, and institutional support. This paper questions the possibility of India to tap into the potential of its youth bulge by the year 2030 or is there a possibility of structural hindrances undermining this dream. Using secondary sources such as census forecasts, Periodic Labour Force Survey findings, and demographic databases in the world such as the World Bank and international labour market bodies, such as the international labour organization, the manuscript examines trends in the age structure, dependency ratios, labour participation, and human capital development. These results show that even though India is still experiencing a decelerating dependency ratio, which is expected to fall below 48 percent in 2030, and an ever-growing working population of over one billion, there are still significant issues of skill hegemony, lack of female labour participation, high levels of informalness and uneven regional development. The unemployment of young people has remained a topical issue, and the rate of youth unemployment among educated adult youth is much higher than the national average. The paper focuses on how the demographic dividend is not a given but rather a condition on the long-term investment in education, health, skill training, and a growth that is employment-based. Without prompt and encompassing policy responses, India will have to face the threats of an increasing number of unemployed youth and social tension, and thus transform its demographic strength into a curse.