Transformation of Carbon Emissions in G-7 Countries within the Framework of International Environmental Agreements

This study analyzes the impacts of signed international environmental agreements on carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions for the period 1990-2023 in the context of the G-7 countries. The main objective of the study is to reveal the structural transformations in emission trends resulting from the regulations developed within the framework of international environmental agreements, particularly the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement. The dates of regime shifts in the emission series were determined using the Bai-Perron multiple structural break test. The findings indicate that significant breaks occurred during the Kyoto negotiations and implementation period (1997-2005) and after the Paris Agreement (2015-2017). In addition, economic shocks such as the global financial crisis and the European debt crisis have also affected the effectiveness of environmental policy implementation. Environmental agreements have been partially successful in reducing absolute emissions in the G-7 countries. Their share of total emissions decreased from 40% in 1990 to 20% in 2023. However, differences persist across countries, and the weak binding nature of mechanisms based on flexible commitments leads to varying outcomes in emissions reductions. In this context, the study emphasizes the decisive role of environmental agreements in shaping global emissions policies. It also highlights the need for stronger monitoring mechanisms in the future.