Spatial spillovers in producer services–manufacturing coordination: evidence from Chinese provinces

Against the backdrop of China's "dual carbon" agenda and the push for high-quality development, coordinated development between producer services and manufacturing is increasingly viewed as a pathway for industrial upgrading. However, evidence on the spatiotemporal evolution and spatial spillovers of this integration across China's provinces remains limited. Using panel data for 31 provincial-level regions in China from 2013 to 2022, we construct entropy-weighted composite indices and quantify integration with a coupling coordination degree (CCD) model. Spatial dependence is assessed via global Moran's I and local indicators of spatial association (LISA), and a spatial Durbin model (SDM) with effect decomposition is estimated to examine determinants and spillovers. CCD increases steadily over time but remains uneven, exhibiting a persistent east-central-west gradient with significant positive spatial autocorrelation and stable local clusters. General public service expenditure raises CCD mainly through within-province effects, and its spillover effects are comparatively weaker, whereas residents' income and informatization strengthen CCD largely via positive spillovers to neighboring provinces. Industrial structure and labor force level show negative direct effects on CCD. Robustness checks confirm these findings. These results underscore the importance of strengthening local public services and cross-regional coordination to improve integration performance and better leverage spillovers. The "dual carbon" agenda is treated as policy context rather than a directly measured environmental outcome.