Mangrove Expansion Along Southeast U.S. in the 21st Century

Mangroves comprise a group of coastal wetland plants that grow on sheltered shorelines in tropical, subtropical, and some warm temperate latitudes. Most species produce propagules that can disperse via tidal, alongshore, and open-ocean currents over local-to-transoceanic scales. In this study, we combine ensemble model forecasting of mangrove distribution, Lagrangian particle-tracking, hurricane data, and reported timing of propagule development and release data. Our goal is to project future mangrove expansion at the rapidly changing range limit in northeastern Florida.We validate our ensemble model by comparing the present-day mangrove distribution predictions with known data. At left in the slider below, our prediction closely aligns with the present-day position of the mangrove range limit. At right is the result using an extreme climate scenario (SSP5-8.5) with poleward expansion of the habitat suitable for mangroves as far north as Georgia with non-zero probabilities in South Carolina.